Prediction for the Book Business:
Cloudy, with a chance of adaptation
by Robert Gray

Any discussion of the future of the book business, however brief, must begin with some consideration of precedent: “Indeed, it had become common to bemoan the state of book distribution ever since the publication of O.H. Cheyney’s Economic Survey of the Book Industry in 1929. Cheyney had concluded that the operations of the book industry were haphazard and wasteful, that book distribution was ineffective, that educational provisions were weak, and that more could be done to promote book buying and reading.”—A History of the Book in America, Vol. 4: edited by Carl F. Kaestle and Janice A. Radway

As contributing editor at Shelf Awareness (www.shelf-awareness.com), a daily newsletter for the book trade, it’s my job to explore the current and future state of the “the book.” I spend my work hours poring over printed matter—online and in hard copy—searching for clues rather than answers.

An element of biblio-meteorology is involved. I can make certain predictions, though they are always hedged. For instance, like the Weather Channel I might forecast that by the time children born this year are adults, there’s an 80 percent chance they will read electronic devices, rather than what I once heard described as “fiber-based” books.

Like any prediction, this has a handy 20 percent parachute. If patterns change, as they probably will (I’m thinking cranial USB ports for direct downloads, or Wi-Fi sunglass lenses), I have an out.

Before landing at Shelf Awareness, I worked for more than 15 years as a bookseller and buyer at the Northshire Bookstore in Manchester, Vt., one of the country’s largest independents. Thus, for the past couple of decades, I’ve been involved in an ongoing conversation with people who live and work in the book world, including, perhaps most importantly, hundreds of readers. Where this leaves me in trying to predict future wind currents and storm fronts in the publishing industry is with the simplest analysis conceivable:

Nobody knows.

That disclaimer in mind, a few observations:

Content always matters, even if the means by which that content is delivered changes daily. We will always tell stories. If you don’t know who Gary Vaynerchuk is, Google him right now because there isn’t enough space here to do him justice. At this year’s BookExpo America in New York, he said something that is, and always has been, key: “It’s all storytelling. I’m obsessed with storytelling.”

Baby Boomers continue to exert leading edge effect because there are so damn many of them (us, I confess) and we tend to be the erratic generation. As readers, we were raised in a traditional book culture, but we also are comfortable with technological innovation. I am writing this in my office, surrounded by jammed bookcases, but within reach on my desk is an iPod Touch. That’s where I read magazines and newspapers, watch baseball, and currently have ebooks of Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn’s Cancer Ward and Marcus Zusak’s The Book Thief, as well as audiobook versions of Carlos Ruiz Zafon’s The Angel’s Game and Graham Greene’s The Human Factor.

I worry about independent bookstores, of course, yet survivors of an incredibly challenging decade-plus are tough and keep evolving. Currently they are living by watchwords like “community,” “third space” and “shop local,” but the sharp ones also scan the horizon.

Our concept of community morphs every second. Social media have opened a new, lateral conversation among publishers, booksellers, agents, writers, and readers. This can seem cacophonous at times, but something good is happening there as well. It’s like riding the subway. You just have to pay attention and know when to change trains. Whatever happened to MySpace?

Independent publishers continue to grow in number, taking advantage of affordable technology and the ability to publicize cheaply online if they’re clever enough. I suspect, however, that only those who learn from the past will be able to invent a successful future for themselves.

Print-on-demand (POD) is feeding more and more books into the clogged publishing pipeline. This will eternally water down the potential for self-published authors, but the possibilities for eliminating the concept of out-of-print books is irresistible (despite complications of the Google Book Search Settlement and subsequent dangling legal threads). If “community” is the digital concept everyone loves, “free” is the more problematic term. Those of us who make our living with words may be excused for reflexively cringing at the very mention, but we will have to adapt, too. And maybe we’re better prepared, having lived so much of our professional lives “on spec.”

Amazon’s Kindle versus the traditional book is a border skirmish, not a war. This conflict (if it is a conflict) will ultimately not be about hardware. It will be about content and rights and privacy. Big publishers are trying everything. The jury . . . is still out.

The current and future state of the book business cannot, of course, be wrapped up tidily in bullet points. My one word of advice is both primal and irrefutable:

Adapt.

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Robert Gray is a contributing editor at Shelf Awareness, the daily online newsletter for the book trade. He has an MFA in Writing & Literature from Bennington College and has written for a variety of publications, including Tin House, Publishers Weekly and others. Visit him online at www.fresheyesnow.com/robert-gray